CryptoDigest. 19.11

Bitcoin ends the week with a massive pullback. It’s time to take stock and assess the prospects for cryptocurrencies over the weekend.

An analysis of the situation in the derivatives market will help us in this: traders regularly assess it when choosing an operational rate.

Two events from the mining world deserve attention: a decrease in interest in cryptocurrency mining, provoked by the weak performance of BTC in the third quarter, and a message from Nvidia about a 60% drop in video card sales.

The statement of the head of the Indian government Narendra Modi is also worthy of a separate assessment. The politician published an unexpected tweet: in it he called on the democratic forces to prevent bitcoin from passing under the control of someone else’s hands. It is difficult to understand who he means, since Modi did not specify this point, but limited himself to words about the need for joint financing of the IT industry by Asian states.

Deep dive

At the beginning of the week, the WhaleMap team did not rule out a fall in bitcoin below $ 57,000. Researchers did not speak directly about the inevitability of a deep pullback, but posted a post in which they pointed to a zone of strong support for the cryptocurrency in the range from $ 47,000 to $ 57,000.

The publication came out on Tuesday, when bitcoin was trading in the region of $ 63,500, and then few believed in the likelihood of such a negative scenario. But already yesterday, when BTC fell to $ 60,000, the risks increased, and at night they assumed alarming proportions. The first cryptocurrency is currently trading at $ 57,900, the upper end of the range indicated by WhaleMap.

BTC capitalization fell to $ 1.09 trillion; in seven days it lost 8.56%. Let’s see if the coin can bounce at the price level that analysts have been looking at.

“Red” Friday

TOP-10: by evening, all coins returned to the green zone, with the exception of bitcoin. Solana demonstrates the maximum performance – + 5.22%, to $ 211.95. Binance is growing – + 3.88%, to $ 579.45, Polkadot – + 4.42%, to $ 41.21, Cardano – + 3.28%, to $ 1.87, Dogecoin – + 2.43%, to $ 0 , 2328 and XRP – + 0.19%, up to $ 1.08.

Ethereum (ETH) is also moving towards growth, adding 2.11% and reaching a value of $ 4,234. The capitalization of the crypto market on Friday evening was $ 2.58 trillion.

Alarms persist, and it would be premature to talk about reaching the bottom for now. According to ViewBase, 1,746 BTC and 2,352 ETH have entered the centralized exchanges today. The gain is still modest, but it reflects a negative trend and may lead to further correction.

The SOPR indicator is holding above one: this is a sign that the investors who organized today’s fall are selling at a profit. Most likely, these are speculators who pumped up the market in October.

And Glassnode’s data show that hodlers continue to hold onto reserves. They dropped only 100,000 coins in a month – about 0.7% of their total reserves.

Looking forward to the Santa Claus Rally?

Among crypto traders, a comic term is popular – the rally of Santa Claus. Every year on December 31st, they evaluate the performance of the race, which usually starts on Catholic Christmas and ends at the beginning of the new year. The “Rally of Santa Claus” was observed almost every year, but it differed in time and efficiency.

Options market players hope that this year’s Santa Rally will be more successful than last year. Traders who purchase Call contracts (for the purchase of an asset) with strike prices at the end of December are guided by the cost of bitcoin and ether in the $ 64,000– $ 75,000 and $ 5,000– $ 6,500 ranges, respectively, Deribit Insights reports.

The researchers note that the overall sentiment remains bullish. But it should be noted that the post of analysts was published on Thursday evening – before the night fall. Accordingly, sentiment may change in the crypto derivatives market today. At the beginning of next week, we will try to assess the reaction of hedge funds and analyze their new rates.

Miners at a loss

Nvidia reported a sharp drop in demand for video cards in the third quarter, which indicates a weakening of miner activity.

Sales plunged 60% and sales revenue fell from $ 266 million in the second quarter to $ 105 million in the third. Demand has weakened not only due to stagnation in the crypto market, but also because of the company’s policies. She focused on gamers, not miners.

Nvidia’s products are very popular with Ethereum miners, but the manufacturer has reduced the processing speed and said that it does not intend to work only for the sake of consumers who mine cryptocurrency. In this regard, Nvidia differs from AMD and Intel. On the contrary, these companies are ready to satisfy all the requests of miners.

Modi wants to control Bitcoin?

Despite India’s restrictive policy towards the cryptosphere, the head of government of this country, Narendra Modi, generally spoke about Bitcoin without criticism.

On Twitter, he addressed democracies and urged them to prevent BTC from falling into the wrong hands. Obviously, he is referring to the need to establish control over the digital currency.

Only in this way will countries be able to minimize the risks of the criminal use of BTC, which can “spoil our youth,” the Indian prime minister stressed.

Sources: CoinMarketCap, Twitter, CoinTelegraph, DeCrypto, WhaleMap, Deribit Insights, Glassnode