At a Price Crossroads: Where Will Bitcoin Go After $ 66,000?

At the end of October, loyal fans of the first cryptocurrency once again experienced delight and euphoria. Still, after all, its value set a new record, only slightly falling short of $ 67,000. Then the predicted correction followed, and now trading is taking place in a rather narrow price range – $ 61,000- $ 64,000…

The most pressing question today sounds like this – how will the events on the market develop further: will BTC please by taking new heights or will we expect another deep correction for several tens of thousands of dollars? What do experts and major investors think about this? Let’s listen to them.

Why has bitcoin grown?

Do you want to predict the further dynamics of the main digital asset at least with relatively high reliability? To do this, you need to understand the reasons for the latest ups and downs in the market.

According to experts, the main event that stimulated the setting of a price record was the actions of the SEC. The US Securities and Exchange Commission approves the launch of the first exchange-traded fund for Bitcoin futures in the US – ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO). His debut was expectedly successful.

On the second day, BITO trading volume exceeded $ 1.2 billion, and the amount of attracted assets reached $ 1.1 billion. Bloomberg IntelligenceThese metrics have earned ProShares ETFs the title of highest performing fund on record. At the very least, it outstripped its competitors in terms of the speed of reaching a capitalization of $ 1 billion. The return to active growth after the spring-summer stagnation immediately revived the talk among bitcoin maximalists about reaching the $ 100,000 mark for BTC before the end of the year.

Such a forecast really has a right to exist. After all, bitcoin entered 2020 as the most effective investment tool of the previous decade and as a result soared by 300%. It is growing this year as well.

True, regulatory problems in the United States and the Chinese ban on cryptocurrencies triggered an almost 60% drop in BTC, but cryptocurrency # 1 was able to regain its position in just a few months. Partly thanks for the support should be given to new institutional investors: they entered the market en masse in search of an effective instrument for hedging their positions.

Wall Street is also beaming with optimism: Bank of New York Mellon, Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley and other large financial institutions cautiously working with cryptocurrency are positively assessing market sentiment.

“In this world, many things function with incredible efficiency.“, – says Lloyd Blankfein, former CEO Goldman Sachs Group, in an interview with Bloomberg. “Just look at the crypto market – its capitalization already exceeds $ 2 trillion. He faces all this regulatory pressure, and many yearn to see him crushed. But this industry is growing in some incomprehensible way. Yes, I don’t get the impression that the crypto market is constantly flourishing, but at the same time it never seemed to me that it was about to die“.

Don Fitzpatrick – Chief Investment Officer Soros Fund Management – does not hide that the company holds some cryptocurrencies in its assets and admits that this industry “has become mainstream today.”

From $ 80,000 to $ 168,000: Optimism is off the charts

The calculation of FOREX market analysts looks curious. They take into account the average profitability indicators for the past three years for various assets (these include FAANG shares – Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google), as well as the dynamics of changes in the value of gold, and come to the conclusion that the probability of an increase in the capitalization of bitcoin to $ 5 trillion already by 2024. The average growth rate will be 103.5% per year.

Leah Wald – CEO Valkyrie Investments (this company has long filed an application with the SEC for the approval of a branded ETF) – says that much will depend on how strong the support for Bitcoin at levels above $ 65,000.

The historical chart shows a clear pattern: taking the next high was followed by large sales, as traders partially took profits. And if bitcoin gains strong support in such situations (as indicated by many signs), we can count on continued growth to the $ 80,000+ mark.

“If the bullish trend gets enough momentum, and there is every reason for this, then by the end of the year we will see a price of $ 80,000 per bitcoin. I think $ 100,000 is overly optimistic, but anything is possible. And I won’t be surprised if somehow I manage to take this level too.“, – said Wold.

Some experts, relying on the results of the technical analysis, already see the next target line – above $ 100K. For example, Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors believes BITO will be able to raise $ 50 billion in its first year of existence. At the same time, Bitcoin will cost $ 168,000.

But if history is nevertheless cyclical, the first cryptocurrency can expect a deep correction, and in the near future. This happened in April, when Bitcoin, after reaching an all-time high on the news about Coinbase listing on NASDAQ, fell 2 times in just a couple of months.

It is appropriate to recall the crypto winter 2018. Then, after approaching close to the level of $ 20,000 against the background of the listing of cryptocurrency futures on CME, bitcoin fell in price by 2, and then 3 times. It didn’t stop until it hit rock bottom at the end of 2018. Therefore, any potential disappointment of investors in Bitcoin futures ETFs after the initial hype could trigger a deep correction.

“But even if this scenario comes true, the scale of BTC sales is unlikely to reach such volumes as in previous years. Then the market was initially unstable and showed signs of exhaustion – now there are no such signals yet“, – summarizes Noel Acheson, Head of Research Genesis Global Trading…

V Jp morgan chase believe that the positive dynamics of bitcoin is explained not so much by the launch of ETFs, as by investors’ fears about the growth of inflation in the US economy:

“It is unlikely that the launch of BITO – by itself – triggered another wave of capital inflows into Bitcoin. We believe that growing perceptions are to blame BTC as a hedge against inflation – better than gold. This is confirmed by the flow of investments from gold ETFs to bitcoin funds, which we have seen since September.“.

Indeed, according to Bloomberg, only from SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) with a capitalization of $ 56 billion, more than $ 3.6 billion were withdrawn over the past 4 months.

It should also be borne in mind that investors can choose not only bitcoin. Following in the wake of BTC, the cryptocurrency No. 2 in terms of capitalization, Ethereum, updated its historical maximum. According to analysts Fundstrat, indicators indicate the maturing of an upward momentum in digital assets such as Solana, Polkadot, Tezos and Binance Coin…

In other words, the overwhelming majority of experts are inclined to believe that Bitcoin can be expected to grow to $ 80,000 in the medium term. Judging by the market movements, a certain large buyer is showing high activity, absorbing all sell orders below $ 59,500.

And this observation prompts a simple conclusion – in the near future we have the right to expect the resistance level at $ 67,100 to be taken and further growth. And it will be accompanied by minor corrections.